Impendulo yoBuntu yiMpendulo ephilileyo yoLwandlekazi

Ukuthatha amanyathelo okujongana nokutshintsha kwemozulu kwaye imfazwe engekho mthethweni yokoyisa iRashiya nxamnye neUkraine

Sijonge ngoloyiko njengoko umkhosi waseRashiya uhlasela iUkraine utshabalalisa abantu bayo. Sibhalela abenzi bezigqibo sibanyanzele ukuba bathathelwe amanyathelo. Sinikela ukuxhasa iimfuno ezisisiseko zabantu abafudukayo kunye nabangqingiweyo. Senza konke okusemandleni ethu ukubonisa inkxaso nenkxalabo yethu kwabo babathandayo bangenako ukuyibaleka imfazwe. Siyathemba ukuba iindlela ezingenabundlobongela, ezisemthethweni eziphendula ngayo iinkokeli zehlabathi ziya kusebenzisa uxinzelelo olwaneleyo ukwenza iRashiya ibone impazamo yeendlela zayo. Kwaye kufuneka sicinge malunga nokuba oku kuthetha ukuthini kwibhalansi yamandla, ukukhusela ukulingana, kunye nekamva lempilo yeplanethi yethu. 

IUkraine lilizwe elingaselunxwemeni elinonxweme olumalunga neekhilomitha ezingama-2,700 2021 ukusuka kuLwandle lwaseAzov olugudle uLwandle Olumnyama ukuya kutsho kwidelta yaseDanube kumda weRomania. Uthungelwano lwemijelo yemilambo kunye nemilambo iqukuqela ilizwe lonke ukuya elwandle. Ukunyuka komphakamo wolwandle kunye nokhukuliseko lwaselunxwemeni lutshintsha unxweme - indibaniselwano yokunyuka komphakamo woLwandle Olumnyama kunye nokunyuka kwamanzi ahlaziyekileyo ngenxa yokutshintsha kweepateni zemvula kunye nokuthotywa komhlaba. Uphononongo lwezenzululwazi lwango-XNUMX olukhokelwa nguBarış Salihoğlu, umlawuli weZiko leSayensi yaseLwandle yaseMbindi Mpuma yeYunivesithi yobuGcisa, uxele ukuba ubomi baselwandle kuLwandle oluMnyama busemngciphekweni wokwenzakala okungenakulungiseka ngenxa yokufudumala kwehlabathi. Njengawo wonke lo mmandla, babanjelwe kukuxhomekeka kumafutha efosili abangela ezi ngxaki.

Indawo eyodwa ehlala eUkraine ithetha ukuba ilikhaya kuthungelwano oluxananazileyo lwemibhobho ethwele ioyile negesi yendalo. Le mibhobho yerhasi 'yethutha' ithwala amafutha efosili, itshiswe ukuvelisa umbane kwaye ihlangabezane nezinye iimfuno zamandla zamazwe aseYurophu. Le mibhobho ikwangqineke ingowona mthombo wamandla usesichengeni njengoko iRussia ihlasele iUkraine.

Ihlabathi liyigxekile le mfazwe njengengekho mthethweni 

Ngowe-1928, ihlabathi lavuma ukuphelisa iimfazwe zoloyiso ngeParis Peace Pact. Esi sivumelwano somthetho samazwe ngamazwe sikuchasile ukuhlasela elinye ilizwe ngenjongo yokoyisa. Kusisiseko salo naliphi na ilizwe elizimele lokuzikhusela nelokuba amanye amazwe akhusele abo bahlaselweyo, njengaxa uHitler waqalisa imigudu yakhe yokuthimba amanye amazwe nokwandisa iJamani. Ikwasisizathu sokuba loo mazwe angachazwa njengeJamani, kodwa njenge "France ehleliyo" kunye "neDenmark". Lo mbono wade wanwenwela “kwiJapan ehleliyo” ngelixa i-USA yayimlawula okwethutyana emva kwemfazwe. Esi sivumelwano somthetho wezizwe ngezizwe kufuneka siqinisekise ukuba ezinye izizwe AYIZUKULUgqala ulongamo lwaseRussia phezu kweUkraine, kwaye ke ngoko ithathele ingqalelo iUkraine njengelizwe elihleliyo, hayi njengenxalenye yeRussia. 

Yonke imingeni yobudlelwane bezizwe ngezizwe inako kwaye ifanele ukusonjululwa ngoxolo, kuhlonelwe ulongamo lwezizwe kunye nemfuneko yezivumelwano ezihlonitshwa ngokufanayo. IUkraine ayizange ibe sisongelo kukhuseleko lwaseRashiya. Enyanisweni, ukuhlasela kweRashiya kusenokuba kwandisa umngcipheko wayo. Emva kokuba ekhuphe le mfazwe ingenangqiqo nengenasizathu, uMongameli waseRussia u-Vladimir Putin ugwebe iRussia ukuba igwetywe ngamazwe ngamazwe njengelizwe le-pariah, kunye nabantu bayo bokwenzakala kwezemali kunye nokwahlukaniswa, phakathi kwezinye izinto ezingalunganga. 

Oorhulumente belizwe, imibutho, imibutho yamazwe ngamazwe, neminye imibutho imanyene kwinkolelo yokuba loo mfazwe ingekho mthethweni ifuna impendulo. Kwiseshoni kaxakeka enqabileyo ebizwe liBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN, nge-2 kaMatshi^nd, iNgqungquthela yeZizwe Ezimanyeneyo yavotela ukugxeka iRashiya ngolu hlaselo. Esi sigqibo saxhaswa ngamalungu ale ndibano ali-141 kwali-193 (aba-5 kuphela abachasayo), saza sapasiswa. Esi senzo yinxalenye yezohlwayo, ukwala, kunye nezinye izenzo eziyilelwe ukohlwaya iRussia ngokujongela phantsi ukhuseleko lwehlabathi kunye nokutyeshela umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe. Kwaye njengoko sisenza oko sinako kwaye sizisola ngento esingenakukwazi ukuyilungisa, sinokulungisa oonobangela bongquzulwano.

Imfazwe inxulumene neoli

Ngoku ka Isikolo saseKennedy saseHarvard, phakathi kwe-25-50% yeemfazwe ukususela kwi-1973 idibaniswe neoli njengendlela ye-causal. Ngamanye amazwi, ioli ngoyena nobangela wemfazwe. Ayikho enye into yorhwebo esondelayo.

Ngokuyinxenye, ukuhlasela kweRashiya yenye enye imfazwe ephathelele amafutha efosili. Yenzelwe ukulawula imibhobho ehamba nge-Ukraine. Ubonelelo lweoyile yaseRussia kunye nokuthengisa kwintshona yeYurophu kunye nezinye zixhasa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lomkhosi waseRussia. INtshona Yurophu ifumana malunga ne-40% yegesi yendalo kunye ne-25% yeoli evela eRashiya. Ngaloo ndlela, imfazwe imalunga nokulindela kukaPutin ukuba ukuhamba kweoli kunye negesi ukuya kwintshona yeYurophu yiRashiya kuya kuthi, kwaye mhlawumbi, impendulo epholileyo kwi-buildup yomkhosi waseRashiya kumda we-Ukraine. Kwaye, mhlawumbi kuthintelwe ukuziphindezela emva kohlaselo. Akukho sizwe kunye neenkampani ezimbalwa ezifuna ukubeka emngciphekweni umsindo kaPutin ngenxa yokuxhomekeka kwamandla. Kwaye, ewe, uPutin wasebenza ngelixa amaxabiso eoyile ayephezulu ngenxa yemfuno yexesha kunye nokunqongophala okuhambelanayo.

Kuyathakazelisa, kodwa akumangalisi ukuba ezo zohlwayo ozifundayo-zijoliswe ukwahlula iRashiya njengelizwe le-pariah - yonke intengiso yamandla ekhululiwe ukwenzela ukuba intshona yeYurophu ikwazi ukugcina ishishini njengesiqhelo nangona ingozi kubantu baseUkraine. I-BBC ibika ukuba abaninzi baye bakhetha ukwala ukuthunyelwa kweoli kunye negesi yaseRashiya. Olu luphawu oluhle lokuba abantu bakulungele ukwenza ukhetho olunjalo xa beziva belungile.

Esi sesinye isizathu sokujongana nokuphazamiseka kwabantu kwimozulu

Ukungxamiseka kokujongana nokutshintsha kwemozulu kudibanisa ngokuthe ngqo ukungxamiseka kokuthintela imfazwe kunye nokusombulula ukungquzulana kwabantu ngokuxoxisana kunye nesivumelwano ngokunciphisa izizathu ezaziwayo zemfazwe - ezifana nokuxhomekeka kwi-fuel fuels.

Kwiintsuku nje ezimbalwa emva kohlaselo lwaseRashiya, entsha Ingxelo ye-IPCC yakwenza kwacaca ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu sele lubi kakhulu kunokuba besicinga. Kwaye iziphumo ezongezelelweyo ziza ngokukhawuleza. Iindleko zobuntu zilinganiswa kwizigidi zobomi obuchaphazelekayo, kwaye elo nani likhula ngokukhawuleza. Luhlobo olwahlukileyo lwedabi lokulungiselela iziphumo kwaye uzame ukunciphisa oonobangela bokutshintsha kwemozulu. Kodwa kubaluleke kakhulu ekunciphiseni iingxabano eziza kuphakamisa iindleko zoluntu kuphela.

Kuvunyelwene ngokufanelekileyo jikelele ukuba uluntu kufuneka lunciphise ukukhutshwa kwe-GHG ukufikelela kumda we-1.5°C kubushushu behlabathi. Oku kufuna utyalo-mali olungenakuthelekiswa nanto kwinguqu elinganayo ukuya kwimithombo yamandla ephantsi kwekhabhoni (enokuhlaziywa). Oku kuthetha ukuba kunyanzelekile ukuba kungabikho projekthi zintsha ze-oyile negesi zivunyiweyo. Imveliso ekhoyo kufuneka ihlehliswe kakhulu. Oku kuthetha ukuba kufuneka sishenxise izibonelelo zerhafu zisuke kumafutha enziwe ngezinto ezimbiwa phantsi siye ngakumoya, ilanga, kunye namanye amandla acocekileyo. 

Mhlawumbi ngokuqinisekileyo, ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kuye kwanceda ukutyhala amaxabiso e-oyile kunye negesi ehlabathi phezulu (kwaye ke, ixabiso lepetroli kunye nedizili). Esi sisiphumo sehlabathi jikelele esisuka kungquzulwano oluncinane ngokwentelekiso olunokuthi luncitshiswe ukuba luyasuswa kumafutha efosili. Ewe kunjalo, umdla we-oyile wase-US unyanzelise ngokuhlekisayo ukomba ngakumbi egameni "lokuzimela kwamandla e-US" nangona i-US ithengisa ngaphandle kwe-oyile ngaphandle kwaye inokuzimela ngakumbi ngokukhawulezisa ishishini esele likhula ngokutsha. 

Uninzi lwabatyali-zimali bamaziko kunye nabazimeleyo bafune ukulahla iipotfoliyo zabo ngokupheleleyo kwiinkampani ze-hydrocarbon, kwaye bafuna zonke iinkampani ezigcinwe kwiipotfoliyo zabo zichaze izinto ezikhutshwayo kwaye zibonelele ngesicwangciso esicacileyo sendlela abazakufumana ngayo ukukhutshwa kwe-zero. Kwabo bangahlukaniyo, utyalo-mali oluqhubekayo ekwandiseni icandelo le-oyile negesi ngokuqinisekileyo aluhambelani neSivumelwano saseParis sika-2016 malunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu, kunye nokusebenza kwexesha elide lotyalo-mali lwabo. Kwaye umfutho usemva kweenjongo ze-net-zero.

Kulindeleke ukuba ukwandisa amandla ahlaziyekayo, izithuthi zombane, kunye nobuchwepheshe obunxulumeneyo kuya kwenza buthathaka imfuno yeoli negesi. Inene, iindleko ezinxulumene nobuchwepheshe bamandla ahlaziyekayo sele zisezantsi kunamandla enziwe ngamafutha efosili-nangona ishishini lamafutha efosili lifumana inkxaso yerhafu eninzi kakhulu. Ngokubalulekileyo, iifama zomoya kunye nelanga - ngakumbi apho zixhaswa lufakelo lwelanga lomntu ngamnye ezindlini, kudederhu lweevenkile, nakwezinye izakhiwo - zincinci kakhulu emngciphekweni wokuphazamiseka ngobuninzi, nokuba yimozulu okanye imfazwe. Ukuba, njengoko silindele, ilanga nomoya ziyaqhubeka nokulandela iindlela zazo zokusasaza ezikhula ngokukhawuleza enye ishumi leminyaka, inkqubo yamandla ekhutshwayo ephantse ibe ngunothi-zero inokuphunyezwa kwiminyaka engama-25 kumazwe ngoku aphakathi kwawona mandla akhupha iigesi zegreenhouse.

Umgca osezantsi

Utshintsho oluyimfuneko ukusuka kumafutha efosili ukuya kumandla acocekileyo luya kuphazamisa. Ngokukodwa ukuba sisebenzisa lo mzuzu ngexesha ukukhawulezisa. Kodwa ayisayi kuze iphazamise okanye itshabalalise njengemfazwe. 

Unxweme lwaseUkraine lungqingiwe njengoko ndibhala. Namhlanje, iinqanawa ezimbini zemithwalo ziye zaqhushumba zaza zatshona zaphulukana nobomi babantu. Abalobi kunye noluntu lwaselunxwemeni luya kwenzakala ngakumbi ngamafutha avuzayo kwiinqanawa de, okanye ukuba, zihlangulwe. Kwaye, ngubani owaziyo ukuba yintoni na evuzayo kumaziko atshatyalaliswe ngemijukujelwa ukuya kwimizila yamanzi yase-Ukraine kwaye ngaloo ndlela ukuya kulwandle lwethu lwehlabathi? Ezo zoyikiso kulwandle ziyakhawuleza. Imiphumo yokukhutshwa kwegesi yobushushu egqithisileyo iba sisisongelo esikhulu ngakumbi. Enye phantse zonke izizwe sele zivumile ukuyilungisa, kwaye ngoku kufuneka ihlangabezane nezo zibophelelo.

Ingxaki yoluntu isekude ukuba iphele. Yaye akunakwenzeka ukwazi ukuba eli nqanaba lemfazwe engekho mthethweni yaseRashiya liya kuphela njani. Nangona kunjalo, singathatha isigqibo, apha kwaye ngoku, ukuzinikela kwihlabathi ekupheliseni ukuxhomekeka kwethu kumafutha efosili. Ukuxhomekeka okuyenye yezinto ezibangela le mfazwe. 
I-autocracies ayenzi amandla asasazwayo - iiphaneli zelanga, iibhetri, iiinjini zomoya, okanye ukudibanisa. Baxhomekeke kwioli nakwigesi. Oorhulumente be-autocratic abakwamkeli ukuzimela kwamandla ngokusebenzisa izinto ezihlaziyiweyo kuba amandla asasazwayo anyusa ukulingana kwaye anciphisa ukuxinana kobutyebi. Utyalo-mali ekujonganeni nokutshintsha kwemozulu kukwamalunga nokuxhobisa iidemokhrasi ukuze ziphumelele oozwilakhe.