Isikrini Selanga Seplanethi: Ukuguqulwa Kwemisebe Yelanga

Ukwephula I-Climate Geoengineering Ingxenye 3

Ingxenye 1: Okungapheli Okungaziwa
Ingxenye 2: Ukususwa kwe-Ocean Carbon Dioxide
Ingxenye 4: Ukucabangela Izimiso Zokuhle, Ukulingana, Nobulungisa

I-Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) iwuhlobo lwe-climate geoengineering oluhlose ukwandisa inani lokukhanya kwelanga elivela emkhathini - ukubuyisela emuva ukufudumala kweplanethi. Ukwandisa lokhu kukhanya kunciphisa inani lokukhanya kwelanga elilenza lifike emkhathini nasemkhathini womhlaba, kupholise iplanethi ngokuzenzela. 

Ngezinhlelo zemvelo, uMhlaba ubonakalisa futhi umunca ukukhanya kwelanga ukuze ulondoloze izinga lokushisa nesimo sezulu, usebenzisana namafu, izinhlayiya ezihamba emoyeni, amanzi, nokunye okungaphezulu - okuhlanganisa nolwandle. Okwamanje, awekho amaphrojekthi emvelo ahlongozwayo emvelo noma athuthukisiwe e-SRM, ngakho-ke ubuchwepheshe be-SRM buwela ngokuyinhloko esigabeni semishini namakhemikhali. Lawa maphrojekthi afuna kakhulu ukushintsha ukusebenzisana kwemvelo koMhlaba nelanga. Kodwa, ukuncipha kwenani lelanga elifinyelela ezweni nasolwandle kunamandla okuphazamisa izinqubo zemvelo ezincike ekukhanyeni kwelanga okuqondile.

Imiklamo ehlongozwayo yemishini namakhemikhali ye-SRM

Umhlaba unesimiso esakhelwe ngaphakathi esilawula inani lemisebe evela elangeni engena futhi ephuma. Lokhu ikwenza ngokubonisa nokusabalalisa kabusha ukukhanya nokushisa, okusiza ukulawula izinga lokushisa. Intshisekelo ekusetshenzisweni kwemishini namakhemikhali kulawa masistimu isukela ekukhipheni izinhlayiya ngomjovo we-aerosol we-stratospheric kuye ekuthuthukiseni amafu aminyene eduze nolwandle ngokukhanya kwamafu olwandle.

I-Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) ukukhishwa okuhlosiwe kwezinhlayiya ze-sulfate emoyeni ukuze kwandiswe ukukhanya komhlaba, ukunciphisa inani lokukhanya kwelanga elifinyelela phansi kanye nokushisa okuvaleleke emkhathini. Ngokufana nengqondo nokusebenzisa isikrini selanga, i-solar geoengineering ihlose ukuqondisa kabusha okunye ukukhanya kwelanga nokushisa ngaphandle komkhathi, ukunciphisa inani elifika phezulu.

Isithembiso:

Lo mqondo usekelwe ezintweni zemvelo ezenzeka ngokuhambisana nokuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo okunamandla. Ngo-1991, ukuqhuma kweNtaba iPinatubo ePhilippines kwakhafula igesi nomlotha endaweni eyi-stratosphere, kwasakaza inqwaba ye-sulphur dioxide. Imimoya yanyakazisa i-sulphur dioxide emhlabeni wonke iminyaka emibili, futhi izinhlayiya zamunca futhi ibonise ukukhanya kwelanga okwanele ukunciphisa amazinga okushisa omhlaba ngo-1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius).

Usongo:

I-SAI edalwe ngumuntu isalokhu ingumqondo wethiyori kakhulu onezifundo ezimbalwa eziphethayo. Lokhu kungaqiniseki kubhebhethekiswa kuphela okungaziwa mayelana nokuthi amaphrojekthi omjovo azodinga ukwenziwa isikhathi eside kangakanani nokuthi kwenzekani uma (noma nini) amaphrojekthi we-SAI ehluleka, enqanyulwa, noma entula uxhaso. Amaphrojekthi we-SAI anesidingo esingase sibe nesikhathi esingenamkhawulo uma eseqalile, futhi ingase ingasebenzi kahle ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Imiphumela engokomzimba emijovweni ye-sulfate yasemkhathini ihlanganisa amandla emvula ene-asidi. Njengoba kubonakala ngokuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo, izinhlayiya ze-sulfate zihamba emhlabeni wonke futhi ingase ifake ezifundeni ngokuvamile ezingathintwa amakhemikhali anjalo, ukushintsha i-ecosystem kanye nokushintsha inhlabathi pH. Okunye okuhlongozwayo esikhundleni se-aerosol sulfate i-calcium carbonate, i-molecule okulindeleke ukuthi ibe nomthelela ofanayo kodwa ingabi nemiphumela emibi eminingi njengesulfate. Kodwa-ke, izifundo zakamuva zokumodela zibonisa i-calcium carbonate ingase ibe nomthelela omubi ungqimba lwe-ozone. Ukubonakaliswa kokukhanya kwelanga okungenayo kubangela okunye ukukhathazeka ngokulingana. Ukubekwa kwezinhlayiya, okungaziwa ukuthi zivelaphi futhi kungenzeka emhlabeni jikelele, kungase kudale ukwahlukana kwangempela noma okucatshangwayo okungase kubhebhethekise ukungezwani kwezwe. Iphrojekthi ye-SAI eSweden yamiswa okwesikhashana ngo-2021 ngemva kokuba uMkhandlu we-Saami, indikimba emele abantu bomdabu baseSaami baseSweden, Norway, Finland, naseRussia, wabelane ngokukhathazeka ngokungenelela kwabantu esimweni sezulu. Iphini likamongameli woMkhandlu, u-Åsa Larsson Blind, ukusho lokho izindinganiso zabantu baseSaami ukuhlonipha imvelo kanye nezinqubo zayo zashayisana ngokuqondile ngalolu hlobo lwe-solar geoengineering.

Ukuguqulwa Okususelwe Ekukhanyeni Okusebusweni/I-Albedo kuhlose ukukhulisa ukubukeka komhlaba kanye nokunciphisa inani lemisebe yelanga ehlala emkhathini. Esikhundleni sokusebenzisa amakhemikhali noma izindlela zamangqamuzana, ukukhanya okusekelwe phezulu kufuna ukwandisa i-albedo, noma ukubonakaliswa, kobuso bomhlaba ngokushintsha indawo yasemadolobheni, imigwaqo, umhlaba wezolimo, izindawo ezimaphakathi nolwandle. Lokhu kungase kuhlanganise ukumboza lezi zifunda ngezinto ezikhanyayo noma izitshalo ukuze zibonise futhi ziqondise kabusha ukukhanya kwelanga.

Isithembiso:

Ukukhanya okusekelwe phezulu kulindeleke ukuthi kunikeze izakhiwo zokupholisa eziqondile endaweni- okufana nendlela amaqabunga esihlahla akwazi ngayo ukuthungatha umhlabathi ngaphansi kwaso. Lolu hlobo lwephrojekthi lungasetshenziswa ngezikali ezincane, okungukuthi izwe nezwe noma idolobha nedolobha. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhanya okusekelwe phezulu kungakwazi ukusiza buyisela ukushisa okwenyukile umuzwa wamadolobha amaningi nezikhungo zasemadolobheni njengomphumela wokushisa kwesiqhingi sasemadolobheni.

Usongo:

Ezingeni lethiyori nelomqondo, ukukhanya okusekelwe phezulu kubonakala sengathi kungenziwa ngokushesha nangempumelelo. Kodwa-ke, ucwaningo lokuguqulwa kwe-albedo luhlala luncane futhi imibiko eminingi ibonisa ukuthi kungenzeka kube nemiphumela engaziwa neyinkimbinkimbi. Imizamo enjalo mancane amathuba okuthi inikeze isisombululo somhlaba wonke, kodwa ukuthuthukiswa okungalingani kokukhanya okusekelwe phezulu noma ezinye izindlela zokulawula imisebe yelanga imiphumela yomhlaba wonke engadingeki futhi engalindelekile ekuhambeni noma umjikelezo wamanzi. Ukukhanyisa indawo ezindaweni ezithile kungase kuguqule amazinga okushisa esifunda futhi kuguqule ukunyakaza kwezinhlayiya nodaba kube neziphetho eziyinkinga. Ukwengeza, ukukhanya okusekelwe phezulu kungase kubangele intuthuko engalingani esikalini sendawo noma somhlaba wonke, okwandisa amathuba okushintsha kwamandla okushintshashintsha.

I-Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) isebenzisa ngamabomu isifutho sasolwandle ukwenza imbewu yamafu asezingeni eliphansi phezu kolwandle, ukukhuthaza ukwakheka ungqimba lwamafu olukhanyayo nolushubile. La mafu avimbela imisebe engenayo ukuba ifinyelele emhlabeni noma olwandle ngaphansi ngaphezu kokubonisa imisebe emuva emkhathini.

Isithembiso:

I-MCB inamandla okwehlisa amazinga okushisa esikalini sesifunda futhi ivimbele imicimbi yokufiphala kwamakhorali. Ucwaningo nokuhlolwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kubone impumelelo ethile e-Australia, ngephrojekthi yakamuva eGreat Barrier Reef. Ezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza zingabandakanya ukutshala amafu phezu kwezinguzunga zeqhwa ukuze kuncibilike iqhwa lasolwandle. Indlela ehlongozwayo njengamanje isebenzisa amanzi olwandle, enciphisa umthelela wawo emithonjeni yemvelo futhi ingenziwa noma kuphi emhlabeni.

Usongo:

Ukuqonda kwabantu nge-MCB kusalokhu kungaqinisekile kakhulu. Ukuhlola okuqediwe kukhawulelwe futhi kuyahlolwa, nge abacwaningi abafuna ukubusa komhlaba wonke noma kwasendaweni ngezimiso zokuziphatha zokuxhaphaza lezi zimiso zemvelo ngenjongo yokuzivikela. Okunye kwalokhu kungaqiniseki kuhlanganisa imibuzo emayelana nomthelela oqondile wokupholisa kanye nokuncipha kokukhanya kwelanga ku-ecosystem yendawo, kanye nomthelela ongaziwa wokwanda kwezinhlayiya ezihamba emoyeni empilweni yabantu nengqalasizinda. Ngayinye yalezi izoncika ekwakhekeni kwesixazululo se-MCB, indlela yokuthunyelwa, kanye nenani le-MCB elilindelwe. Njengoba amafu anembewu ehamba emjikelezweni wamanzi, amanzi, usawoti, namanye ama- molecule ayobuyela emhlabeni. Amadiphozithi kasawoti angase aphazamise indawo eyakhelwe kuyo, kuhlanganise nezindlu zabantu, ngokusheshisa ukuwohloka. Lezi zimali zingase futhi ziguqule okuqukethwe kwenhlabathi, kuthinte umsoco kanye nekhono lokukhula kwezitshalo. Lokhu kukhathazeka okubanzi kuveza okungaziwa okuhambisana ne-MCB.

Ngenkathi i-SAI, ukuguqulwa kwe-albedo, kanye ne-MCB kusebenzela ukukhombisa imisebe yelanga engenayo, i-Cirrus Cloud Thinning (CCT) ibheka ukwanda kwemisebe ephumayo. Amafu e-Cirrus amunca futhi abonise ukushisa, ngesimo semisebe, ibuyele emhlabeni. I-Cirrus Cloud Thinning iphakanyiswe ososayensi ukuze kuncishiswe ukushisa okuboniswa yilawa mafu futhi kuvumele ukushisa okwengeziwe kuphume emkhathini, okwehlisa amazinga okushisa ngokwengqondo. Ososayensi balindele ukunciphisa la mafu ngokuthi ukufafaza amafu ngezinhlayiya ukunciphisa isikhathi sabo sokuphila nokuqina.

Isithembiso:

I-CCT ithembisa ukunciphisa amazinga okushisa emhlabeni wonke ngokwandisa inani lemisebe ukuze ibaleke emkhathini. Ucwaningo lwamanje lukhomba ukuthi lokhu ukuguqulwa kungase kusheshise umjikelezo wamanzi, imvula ekhuphukayo kanye nezindawo ezizuzisayo ezivamise ukuba nesomiso. Ucwaningo olusha luphinde luveze ukuthi lokhu kwehla kwezinga lokushisa kungasiza ulwandle olunensayo luyancibilika iqhwa nokusiza ekugcineni amaqhwa eqhwa asezindaweni ezishisayo. 

Usongo: 

Umbiko ka-2021 we-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nesayensi yemvelo ekhonjiwe. ukuthi i-CCT ayiqondi kahle. Ukuguqulwa kwesimo sezulu kwalolu hlobo kungase kuguqule amaphethini emvula futhi kubangele imithelela engaziwa kuma-ecosystem nakwezolimo. Izindlela ezihlongozwayo njengamanje ze-CCT zihlanganisa ukufafaza amafu ngezinhlayiya. Nakuba inani elithile lezinhlayiya kulindeleke ukuthi libe nesandla ekwehliseni amafu abe mncane, ngaphezu komjovo wezinhlayiya ingase imbewu amafu esikhundleni. Lamafu anembewu angase agcine eshubile futhi abambe ukushisa, kunokuba abe mancane futhi adedele ukushisa. 

Izibuko zasemkhathini enye indlela abacwaningi abahlongoze ngayo ukuqondisa kabusha futhi bavimbe ukukhanya kwelanga okungenayo. Le ndlela iphakamisa ukubeka izinto ezikhanyayo kakhulu emkhathini ukuvimba noma ukukhombisa imisebe yelanga engenayo.

Isithembiso:

Kulindelwe izibuko zasemkhathini yehlisa inani lemisebe ukungena emkhathini ngokuwumisa ngaphambi kokuba ufinyelele emhlabeni. Lokhu kungaholela ekushiseni okuncane okungena emkhathini futhi kupholise iplanethi.

Usongo:

Izindlela ezisekelwe emkhathini zinombono ophezulu futhi zihambisana ne-a ukuntuleka kwezincwadi kanye nedatha ye-empirical. Okungaziwa ngomthelela walolu hlobo lwephrojekthi kuyingxenye eyodwa kuphela yokukhathazeka okuphethwe abacwaningi abaningi. Ukukhathazeka okwengeziwe kuhlanganisa imvelo ebizayo yamaphrojekthi asemkhathini, umthelela oqondile wokuqondisa kabusha imisebe ngaphambi kokufika emhlabeni, umthelela ongaqondile wokunciphisa noma wokukhipha ukukhanya kwenkanyezi ezilwaneni zasolwandle thembela ekuzulazuleni kwasezulwini, amandla ingozi yokuqedwa, kanye nokuntuleka kokubusa kwendawo yamazwe ngamazwe.

Ukuthuthela ekusaseni elipholile?

Ngokuqondisa kabusha imisebe yelanga ukuze yehlise izinga lokushisa leplanethi, Ukuphathwa kwemisebe yelanga kuzama ukuphendula uphawu lokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kunokubhekana ngqo nenkinga. Le ndawo yokufunda igcwele imiphumela ebingahlosiwe engaba khona. Lapha, ukuhlolwa kobungozi kubalulekile ukuze kutholwe ukuthi ubungozi bephrojekthi bufanele ubungozi emhlabeni noma ubungozi bokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngaphambi kokuqaliswa kwanoma iyiphi iphrojekthi ngezinga elikhulu. Amathuba okuthi amaphrojekthi e-SRM athinte iplanethi yonke abonisa isidingo sanoma yikuphi ukuhlaziya ubungozi ukuze kubandakanye ukucatshangelwa kwengozi endaweni yemvelo, ukubhebhetheka kwezingxabano zezwe, kanye nomthelela ekwandeni kokungalingani komhlaba. Nganoma yiluphi uhlelo lokushintsha isimo sezulu sesifunda, noma iplanethi yonkana, amaphrojekthi kumele agxile ekucabangeleni ukulingana nokubamba iqhaza kwababambe iqhaza.