I-Humanitarian Response yi-Healy Ocean Response

Ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu futhi impi engekho emthethweni yokunqoba iRussia ngokumelene ne-Ukraine

Sibuka ngokwesaba njengoba ukuhlasela kwezempi kweRussia e-Ukraine kubangela umonakalo omkhulu kubantu bakhona. Sibhalela abenzi bezinqumo ukuze sifune isinyathelo. Sinikela ukuze sisekele izidingo zomuntu eziyisisekelo zabafudukayo nabavinjezelwe. Senza konke esingakwenza ukuze sizwakalise ukusekela kwethu nokukhathalela labo abathandekayo babo abangenakuyibalekela impi. Sithemba ukuthi izindlela ezingenalo udlame, ezingokomthetho abaholi bomhlaba abaphendula ngazo zizofaka ingcindezi eyanele yokwenza iRussia ibone iphutha lezindlela zayo. Futhi kufanele sicabange ukuthi lokhu kusho ukuthini ngebhalansi yamandla, ukuvikela ukulingana, kanye nekusasa lempilo yeplanethi yethu. 

I-Ukraine iyizwe elingasogwini elinogu olungamakhilomitha angaba ngu-2,700 2021 ukusuka oLwandle Lwase-Azov eduze noLwandle Olumnyama kuya emfuleni waseDanube emngceleni weRomania. Uxhaxha lwemifula nemifudlana igeleza inqamula izwe iye olwandle. Ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kanye nokuguguleka kogu kushintsha ugu - inhlanganisela yokukhuphuka kwezinga loLwandle Olumnyama nokwanda kokugeleza kwamanzi ahlanzekile ngenxa yokushintsha kwamaphethini emvula kanye nokuncipha komhlaba. Ucwaningo lwesayensi lwango-XNUMX oluholwa ngu-Barış Salihoğlu, umqondisi we-Institute of Marine Sciences yase-Middle East Technical University, lubike ukuthi impilo yasolwandle yoLwandle Olumnyama isengozini yokulimala okungenakulungiseka ngenxa yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke. Njengaso sonke isifunda, bathunjwe ukuncika kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi adala lezi zinkinga.

Indawo yase-Ukraine eyingqayizivele isho ukuthi iyikhaya lenethiwekhi ebanzi yamapayipi athwele uwoyela negesi yemvelo. Lawa mapayipi egesi 'ezokuthutha' athwala izinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi, ashiswe ukuze akhiqize ugesi futhi ahlangabezane nezinye izidingo zamandla zamazwe aseYurophu. Lawo mapayipi aphinde afakazela ukuthi angumthombo wamandla osengozini njengoba iRussia ihlasele i-Ukraine.

Umhlaba ugxeke impi ngokuthi ayikho emthethweni 

Ngo-1928, umhlaba wavuma ukuqeda izimpi zokunqoba ngeParis Peace Pact. Lesi sivumelwano somthetho samazwe ngamazwe sakwenqabela ukuhlasela elinye izwe ngenjongo yokunqoba. Kuyisisekelo sanoma isiphi isizwe esizimele sokuzivikela kanye namanye amazwe azovikela abahlaselwe, njengalapho uHitler eqala imizamo yakhe yokuthatha amanye amazwe futhi andise iJalimane. Kuyisizathu futhi isizathu sokuthi lawo mazwe angachazwanga njengeJalimane, kodwa "njengeFrance ethathiwe" kanye "nokudla iDenmark". Lo mqondo waze wadlulela “naseJapane ethathiwe” ngenkathi i-USA imbusa isikhashana ngemva kwempi. Lesi sivumelwano somthetho samazwe ngamazwe kufanele siqinisekise ukuthi ezinye izizwe NGEKE zibubone ubukhosi baseRussia phezu kwe-Ukraine, futhi ngaleyo ndlela zihloniphe i-Ukraine njengezwe elihlalwa, hhayi njengengxenye yeRussia. 

Zonke izinselele zobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe zingaxazululwa futhi kufanele zixazululwe ngokuthula, kuhlonishwe ubukhosi bezizwe kanye nesidingo sezivumelwano ezihlonishwa ngokufanayo. I-Ukraine ayizange ibe yingozi ekuvikelekeni kweRussia. Eqinisweni, ukuhlasela kweRussia kungenzeka kwandise ukuba sengozini kwayo. Ngemva kokudedela le mpi engenangqondo nengenasizathu, uMongameli waseRussia u-Vladimir Putin usenqume ukuthi iRussia ibhekane nokulahlwa ngamazwe ngamazwe njengesizwe esizimele, kanye nabantu bayo ukuthi bahlukumezeke ngokwezimali kanye nokuhlukaniswa, phakathi kokunye ukugula. 

Ohulumeni bezwe, izinhlangano, izinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe, nezinye izinhlangano zimunye enkolelweni yazo yokuthi impi enjalo engekho emthethweni idinga impendulo. Esigungwini esiphuthumayo esingajwayelekile esibizwe uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN, ngoMashi 2^nd, uMkhandlu-jikelele weZizwe Ezihlangene wavotela ukugxeka iRussia ngalokhu kuhlasela. Lesi sinqumo sasekelwa amalungu omhlangano angu-141 kwangu-193 (aphikisana nabahlanu kuphela), futhi saphasiswa. Lesi senzo siyingxenye yenqwaba yezijeziso, ukuduba, nezinye izenzo eziklanyelwe ukujezisa i-Russia ngokubukela phansi ukuphepha komhlaba wonke kanye nokudelela umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe. Futhi njengoba senza esingakwenza futhi sizisola ngalokho esingakwazi, singakwazi futhi ukubhekana nezimbangela zokungqubuzana.

Impi ihlobene namafutha

Ngokuvumelana ne Isikole saseHarvard Kennedy, phakathi kwe-25-50% yezimpi kusukela ku-1973 ixhunywe kuwoyela njengendlela eyimbangela. Ngamanye amazwi, uwoyela uyimbangela yempi ehamba phambili. Ayikho enye impahla efika eduze.

Ngokwengxenye, ukuhlasela kweRussia kungenye impi ephathelene nezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi. Okokulawula amapayipi adlula e-Ukraine. Ukunikezwa kukawoyela waseRussia kanye nokudayiselwa entshonalanga yeYurophu nakwabanye kusekela isabelomali sezempi saseRussia. INtshonalanga Yurophu ithola cishe u-40% wegesi yemvelo kanye nama-25% kawoyela avela eRussia. Ngakho-ke, impi futhi imayelana nokulindela kukaPutin ukuthi ukugeleza kukawoyela negesi entshonalanga yeYurophu yiRussia kwakuyoba, futhi mhlawumbe kwenza, ukuphendula kancane kancane ekwakhekeni kwezempi yaseRussia emngceleni we-Ukraine. Futhi, mhlawumbe kuze kuvimbele ukuziphindiselela ngemva kokuhlasela. Asikho isizwe nezinkampani ezimbalwa ebezifuna ukubeka engcupheni intukuthelo kaPutin uma kubhekwa lokhu kuncika kwamandla. Futhi-ke, u-Putin wenza ngenkathi amanani kawoyela ayephezulu ngenxa yesidingo sesizini kanye nokushoda okuhlobene.

Kuyathakazelisa, kodwa akumangazi, lezo zijeziso ofunda ngazo - okuhloswe ngazo ukuhlukanisa iRussia njengezwe le-pariah - konke ukuthengiswa kwamandla okukhululekile ukuze i-Western Europe ikwazi ukugcina ibhizinisi njengenjwayelo naphezu kokulimala kwabantu base-Ukraine. I-BBC ibika ukuthi abaningi bakhethe ukwenqaba ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela negesi eRussia. Lokhu kuwuphawu oluhle lokuthi abantu bazimisele ukwenza izinqumo ezinjalo lapho benomuzwa wokuthi balungile.

Lesi esinye isizathu sokubhekana nokuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu kwabantu

Ukuphuthuma kokubhekana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuxhumanisa ngqo nokuphuthuma kokuvimbela impi nokuxazulula ukungqubuzana kwabantu ngokuxoxisana nokuvumelana ngokunciphisa izimbangela zempi ezaziwayo - njengokuncika emafutheni ezinto ezimbiwa phansi.

Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ngemva kokuhlasela kweRussia, entsha Umbiko we-IPCC ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kubi kakhulu kunalokho ebesikucabanga. Futhi imiphumela eyengeziwe iza ngokushesha. Izindleko zokusiza abantu ziyakalwa ngezigidi zezimpilo ezivele sezithintekile, futhi lelo nani likhula ngamandla. Kuwuhlobo oluhlukile lwempi ukulungiselela imiphumela nokuzama ukukhawulela izimbangela zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Kodwa kubaluleke ngendlela efanayo ukunciphisa izingxabano ezizokhuphula izindleko zomuntu kuphela.

Kuvunyelenwe emhlabeni wonke ukuthi isintu kumele sehlise ukukhishwa kwe-GHG ukuze sifinyelele umkhawulo ongu-1.5°C ekufudumaleni komhlaba. Lokhu kudinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okungenakuqhathaniswa ekushintsheni ngokulinganayo emithonjeni yamandla ekhabhoni ephansi (evuselelekayo). Lokhu kusho ukuthi kubalulekile ukuthi kungabikho amaphrojekthi amasha kawoyela negesi azovunywa. Ukukhiqizwa okukhona kufanele kwehliswe ngokuphawulekayo. Kusho ukuthi kufanele sisuse uxhaso lwentela lususe amafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi silubhekise emoyeni, ngelanga, namanye amandla ahlanzekile. 

Mhlawumbe nakanjani, ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kuye kwasiza ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela negesi emhlabeni wonke (futhi ngaleyo ndlela, intengo kaphethiloli nodizili). Lona umthelela womhlaba wonke ovela engxabanweni encane engancishiswa uma isuswa kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi. Kunjalo, izithakazelo zikawoyela wase-US ziphokophele ngokuhlekisayo ukumba okwengeziwe egameni “lokuzimela kwamandla e-US” naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi i-US ingumkhiqizi kawoyela ophelele futhi ingase izimele nakakhulu ngokusheshisa imboni evele ikhula kabusha evuselelekayo. 

Abatshalizimali abaningi bezikhungo nababodwa bafuna ukulahla iphothifoliyo yabo ezinkampanini zama-hydrocarbon, futhi bafuna zonke izinkampani eziphethwe kumaphothifoliyo azo zidalule ukukhishwa kwazo futhi zinikeze uhlelo olucacile lokuthi zizothola kanjani ukukhishwa kwe-zero. Kulabo abangadayisi, ukuqhubeka nokutshalwa kwezimali ekwandiseni umkhakha kawoyela negesi akuhambisani neze neSivumelwano saseParis sangowezi-2016 mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kanye nokusebenza isikhathi eside kokutshalwa kwezimali kwabo. Futhi umfutho ungemuva kwamagoli e-net-zero.

Kulindeleke ukuthi ukwandisa amandla avuselelekayo, izimoto zikagesi, nobuchwepheshe obuhlobene kuzonciphisa isidingo sikawoyela negesi. Impela, izindleko ezihambisana nobuchwepheshe bamandla avuselelekayo sezivele ziphansi kunamandla akhiqizwe ngamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi - nakuba imboni kaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi ithola uxhaso lwentela oluthe xaxa. Okubalulekile, amapulazi omoya nelanga - ikakhulukazi lapho kusekelwa ukufakwa kwelanga ngakunye ezindlini, ezitolo ezinkulu, nakwezinye izakhiwo - asengozini encane yokuphazamiseka okukhulu, kungaba yisimo sezulu noma impi. Uma, njengoba silindele, ilanga nomoya ziqhubeka nokulandela imikhuba yazo ekhula ngokushesha yokuthunyelwa kwenye ishumi leminyaka, isimiso samandla esikhipha igesi esicishe sibe nguziro singafinyelelwa phakathi neminyaka engu-25 emazweni manje aphakathi kwabakhiqizi abakhulu bamagesi abamba ukushisa.

Isiphetho sendaba

Ushintsho oludingekayo olusuka kumafutha emvelo luye kumandla ahlanzekile luzophazamisa. Ikakhulukazi uma sisebenzisa lesi sikhathi ngesikhathi ukuze sisheshise. Kodwa akusoze kwaphazamisa noma kucekele phansi njengempi. 

Ugu lwase-Ukraine luvinjezelwe njengoba ngibhala. Njengamanje, imikhumbi emibili ethwala impahla iye yaqhuma futhi yacwila kwalahlekelwa ukuphila kwabantu. Izindawo zokudoba kanye nemiphakathi yasogwini izophinde ilinyazwe amafutha avuzayo emikhunjini kuze kube, noma uma, isindisiwe. Futhi, ubani owaziyo ukuthi yini evuzayo ezikhungweni ezicekelwe phansi ezicitshwayo zingena emanzini ase-Ukraine futhi ngaleyo ndlela ziye olwandle lwethu lomhlaba wonke? Lezo zinsongo olwandle ziyashesha. Imiphumela yokukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa ngokweqile iyingozi enkulu kakhulu. Enye cishe zonke izizwe esezivumile ukubhekana nazo, futhi manje kufanele ihlangabezane nalezo zibopho.

Inkinga yobuntu isekude ukuphela. Futhi akunakwenzeka ukwazi ukuthi lesi sigaba sempi engekho emthethweni yaseRussia sizophela kanjani. Nokho, singanquma, lapha namanje, ukuzibophezela emhlabeni wonke ekuqedeni ukuthembela kwethu emafutheni ezinto ezimbiwa phansi. Ukuncika okungenye yezimbangela zale mpi. 
Ama-autocracies awawenzi amandla asabalalisiwe - amaphaneli elanga, amabhethri, izinjini zomoya, noma ukuhlanganiswa. Bathembele kuwoyela negesi. Ohulumeni be-autocratic abakwamukeli ukuzimela kwamandla ngokusebenzisa izinto ezivuselelekayo ngoba amandla asabalalisiwe anyusa ukulingana futhi anciphisa ukugcwala komcebo. Ukutshala imali ekubhekaneni nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kumayelana nokuhlomisa imibuso yentando yeningi ukuthi inqobe ukubusa ngentando yeningi.